太湖最高水位及其与气候变化、人类活动的关系  

MAXIMUM WATER LEVEL OF TAIHU LAKE AND ITS RELATION TO THE CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN ACTIVITIES

作　　者：尹义星[1] 许有鹏[1] 陈莹[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2009年第7期609-614,共6页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(40730635);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(200701024;200701005);国家自然科学基金项目(40571025)

摘　　要：采用累积距平及非参数检验的方法，重点分析1954～1999年太湖最高水位的变化，及其与相关气候因子的关系。1954年以来，太湖最高水位变化大致以20世纪80年代初为界，此前下降，此后则上升。梅雨和热带气旋影响次数直接影响太湖最高水位的变化；Wilcoxon检验表明最高水位变化与西北太平洋夏季风指数之间联系密切，而最低水位与其关系则不明显。Kendall协和系数检验验证了太湖最高水位与各气候因子变化之间的一致性。80、90年代太湖最高水位不断上升且常常居高不下，人类活动起着重要的作用；从河网水系变化、湖泊围垦和土地利用变化等方面分析了人类活动对太湖水位变化的影响。结论认为，太湖最高水位上升仍然受控于气候变化因子；而人类活动则加剧了水位上升的情势，并在其中所起作用日益重要。The paper adopts the methods of cumulative anomaly and nonparametric tests to analyze the change of maximum water level （MWL） of Taihu Lake from 1954 to 1999,and detect its relation to the climate change. The change of Taihu Lake MWL can be divided into two periods with 1980s as the demarcation：the MWL decreased before the 80s and increased after the 80s. Meiyu and tropic cyclone directly influence on the variation of MWL,and it is indicated by Wilcoxon test that the change of MWL is closely correlated to western north pacific summer monsoon （WNPSM）, while the correlation is not significant between minimum water level and WNPSM. Kendall＇s test verified the consistency among the changes of MWL and climate factors. The MWL increased very fast after the 80 s,human activities play an important role in this process. The anthropogenic activities such as river network change,lake reclamation and land use change were investigated about their role in the MWL change of Taihu Lake. The paper comes to the conclusion that the rise of Taihu MWL is still mainly determined by climate change factors, while human activities deteriorate the situations of MWL rise,and will play a more important role in the process.

关 键 词：最高水位 太湖 梅雨 热带气旋 西北太平洋夏季风 人类活动 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学] P332.3[天文地球—水文科学]