云南地震活跃期的大震非线性加速律及对未来3年大震趋势预测  

The Nonlinear Acceleration Regularity of the Large Seism During Seismic Active Period and the Trend Prediction of Large Seism for Future Three Years in Yunnan

作　　者：罗葆荣[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院云南天文台

出　　处：《云南天文台台刊》1998年第2期78-84,共7页Publications of the Yunnan Observatoty

摘　　要：在太阳活动与地震相关研究的基础上指出：在周期性太阳活动的调控下，地震活动也显示出明显的周期性演化。地震除存在１１ａ周期外，还存在２２ａ周期，后者形成了本世纪以来地震的４个活跃期和４个平静期。云南在地震活跃期中，大震的时间间隔有逾来逾缩短的趋势，其遵循Ｔｘ＝△Ｔ１／２的方幂规律演化。在一个活跃期中，最后一个大震的时间间隔比这个规律规定的时间间隔更短。如果某个大震的爆发时间比由这个规律预测的时间相差（一般是提前）５０％以上，就意味着本地震活跃期的大震从此结束。根据这个规律对云南未来３年的大震趋势作了预测。お? On the basis of relation between the seism and solar activity, it is pointed out that the periodicity evolution of the seisimic activity is under the modulation of solar activity. The seismic activity has a cycle of 22 years besides the cycle of 11 years. Four active periods and four quiet periods of the seism have been formed from the 22 year cycle since this century. The interval between two large seisms seems to have a trend of gradually short time during a seismic active period in Yunnan. The regularity complies with an acceleration evolution of Tx= △T1/2. The interval of the last large seism is even shorter than the prediction by this acceleration regularity in a seismic active period. If the eruptive date of a large seism is earlier than the date of prediction by this regularity for over 50%, then it indicates that this large seism will be last one in this seismic active period.According to the acceleration regularity the trend prediction of large seism for future three years in Yunnan is made in this paper.

关 键 词：地震周期 大震加速率 趋势预测 云南 地震活跃期 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学] P183.5[天文地球—固体地球物理学]