基于Copula的海洋生态系统的稳态转换  

Regime Shifts of the Marine Ecosystem with Copula

作　　者：李胜朋[1] 冯剑丰[2] 王洪礼[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学机械工程学院,天津300072 [2]南开大学环境科学与工程学院环境污染过程与基准教育部重点实验室,天津300071

出　　处：《天津大学学报》2009年第6期533-538,共6页Journal of Tianjin University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(10772132);教育部博士点基金资助项目(20070056063)

摘　　要：基于藻类与食植鱼类的生态动力学模型,采用非线性动力学方法,确定了典型控制参数的分岔区域.运用Copula方法,通过历史数据得到控制参数的概率分布.以分岔区域作为不同状态,建立了系统状态转移的马尔科夫链模型.运用蒙特卡罗方法计算转移概率矩阵,得到多稳态转换的平稳概率,并得到了使期望状态平稳概率最大化的控制参数值.Based on the ecological dynamics model consisting of algae and herbivorous fish,different bifurcation regions for the control parameters were obtained with nonlinear dynamical analysis. Then with Copula method and field data,the probability distribution for the bifurcation parameters was obtained. Markov chain model for the state transition was constructed with considering bifurcation regions as different states. Using Monte Carlo,the transition probability matrix and stationary probability of the regime shifts were achieved. Last ,the values of the bifurcation parameters which maximize the stationary probability of the desired state were calculated.

关 键 词：稳态转换 海洋生态系统 分岔 COPULA方法 

分 类 号：P73[天文地球—海洋科学]