山东省1970-2005年女性乳腺癌死亡率变化趋势  

Changing trend of female breast cancer mortality in Shandong Province,1970-2005

作　　者：王燕[1] 马清[2] 李会庆[2] 刁玉涛[1] 尹畅[2] 崔永春[2] 徐爱强 马吉祥 郭晓雷 

机构地区：[1]山东大学公共卫生学院,山东济南250012 [2]山东省医学科学院基础医学研究所,山东济南250062 [3]山东省疾病控制中心慢性非传染性疾病防制所,山东济南250014

出　　处：《中华肿瘤防治杂志》2009年第10期729-732,共4页Chinese Journal of Cancer Prevention and Treatment

摘　　要：目的:分析山东省1970-2005年女性乳腺癌的死亡情况。方法:根据山东省1970-2005年全死因调查资料以及乳腺癌的死亡登记历史资料,计算女性乳腺癌的死亡率、中国1964年人口和世界1967年人口标化死亡率,采用游程检验和Cox-Stuart检验分析女性乳腺癌死亡率的变化趋势。结果:女性乳腺癌的死亡率随年龄增长呈上升趋势。山东省1970-2005年女性乳腺癌的死亡率总体无显著性上升,但2005年的世界人口标化死亡率(5.35/10万)仍然显著高于1970年(4.49/10万)。按照城乡分布,城市女性乳腺癌的死亡率高于农村。城市女性乳腺癌死亡率1970-1992年呈上升趋势,1992年后则平稳略降;农村则是从1992年后呈上升趋势。结论:山东女性乳腺癌发病及死亡率仍处于低水平,但农村显示出明显的上升趋势。根据乳腺癌的相关危险性因素变化,预期今后城乡女性乳腺癌死亡率会缓慢上升。OBJECTIVE： To analyze the changing trend of the mortality of female breast cancer in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2005. METHODS： The crude mortality and standardized mortality of female breast cancer, which adjusted by the proportion of Chinese population in 1964 and world population in 1967, were calculated based on all death surveying data and the death registration of female breast cancer. Run test and Cox-Stuart test were performed to analyze the changing trend of the mortality of female breast cancer. RESULTS： The age specific mortality rates of female breast cancer increased with age. There was not any significant changing trend in the mortality of female breast cancer in Shandong from 1970 to 2005. However, the standardized mortality in 2005 （5. 35/100 000） was significantly higher than that in 1970 （4.49/100 000）. The mortality of female breast cancer in the city was significantly higher than that in the countryside. It was increased in the city from 1970 to 1992. From then on, it was slightly decreased in the city, while increased in the countryside. CONCLUSIONS： The incidence and mortality rates of fe male breast cancer are relatively low at present. However, there is an increasing trend in the countryside. With the change of risk factors for breast cancer, it is anticipated that the mortality may be increased tardily in the future.

关 键 词：乳腺肿瘤 死亡率 山东/流行病学 

分 类 号：R737.9[医药卫生—肿瘤]