基于Logit模型的客运专线旅客选择行为分析  

Analysis of Passengers' Choice Behavior for Dedicated Passenger Railway Lines Based on Logit Model

作　　者：王爽[1] 赵鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044

出　　处：《铁道学报》2009年第3期6-10,共5页Journal of the China Railway Society

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(60674006);铁道部科技研究开发计划项目(2008X004-B)

摘　　要：以铁路旅客为研究对象,模拟客运专线建成后的情景,调查旅客在客运专线建成后对高速列车和高频率列车换乘方式的选择偏好。介绍了非集计模型的特点、意向调查问卷设计及调查的实施方法。基于2008年6月旅客调查的样本数据,分析影响旅客选择行为的重要因素。利用非集计理论和方法,构建旅客的选择行为模型,包括旅客对高速列车的选择行为模型、旅客对高频率列车换乘模式及直达列车的选择行为模型,进行了参数标定和分析,量化影响因素对旅客选择行为的影响程度。利用所建模型对旅客选择行为进行预测,预测结果与观测数据的对比分析表明,两模型的预测准确率分别为85.27%和81.18%。所得结论可为快速客运网络条件下客运服务产品的设计提供依据。With railway passengers as the object of study, this g and handing over of dedicated passenger railway lines and paper simulates the conditions upon commissioinvestigates the preference of passengers＂ choice for high speed trains and transferring between high-frequency trains. The characteristics of the disaggregate model, and the SP questionnaire design and implementation are introduced. These important factors influencing passengers＂ choice behaviour are analyzed on the basis of the sample data of June 2008 survey. Two passengers choice behaviour models are constructed by using the disaggregate theories and methods. These models include the passengers＂ choice behaviour model for high speed trains and the passengers＇ choice behaviour model for transfer modes and nonstop trains. The model parameters are estimated to quantify the impact of each factor on passengers＂ choice behaviour. Passengers＂ choice behaviour is forecasted with the models and the results are compared and analyzed. Experimental results indicate that 85. 27% and 81.18% of the forecasted data fit the field data. A basis is provided for design of passenger transport service products in the rapid passenger traffic network.

关 键 词：客运专线 旅客选择行为 非集计模型 SP调查 

分 类 号：U293[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]