隧道围岩变形的灰色预测模型研究  

Study on Grey Predication Model of Tunnel Surrounding Rock Deformation

作　　者：王义国[1] 刘晓燕 韩爱民[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京工业大学土木工程学院,江苏南京210009 [2]无锡市公路管理处,江苏无锡214031

出　　处：《江苏建筑》2009年第3期45-47,共3页Jiangsu Construction

摘　　要：对隧道围岩变形的预测方法有很多,但是都存在一定的缺陷,而灰色GM(1,1)预测模型对隧道围岩变形的短期预测有着较好的效果。但是大量的施工实践证明,初期阶段施工对围岩变形的预测精度影响非常显著。针对隧道工程围岩变形机理的特性,文章提出了施加政策因子的优化模型。研究结果表明,施加政策因子模型成功消弱了外界影响因素对预测的影响,预测精度显著提高。There are a lot of methods on prediction of tunnel surrounding rock deformation. However, each method has some flaws, The prediction accuracy of GM（1,1） prediction model is very high in short-term prediction of tunnel surrounding rock deformation. A large number of construction practices show that construction in early phase has an important effect on the accuracy of model＇s prediction. For characteristics of tunnel surrounding rock deformation mechanism, this paper put forward a optimized model by adding policy factor. The results indicated that this optimized model Successfully reduced the outside impact on prediction, and the accuracy of prediction has improved a lot.

关 键 词：隧道 围岩变形 预测模型 

分 类 号：U451.2[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]