改进的灰色预测模型在过坝货运量预测中的应用  

Application of improved grey forecasting model for freight volume forecast

作　　者：张绪进[1] 母德伟[1] 韩涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学西南水运工程科学研究所,重庆400074

出　　处：《水运工程》2009年第6期4-7,共4页Port & Waterway Engineering

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划专题项目(2006BAB05B02)

摘　　要：通过某些数学处理方法,从建模机理上着手对GM(1,1)模型进行改进,减小由于建模方法上的缺陷所造成的固有误差。改进后的模型较传统模型灵活性大、预测精度高,大大提高了GM(1,1)模型的适用范围。通过实例探讨了GM(1,1)改进模型在货运量预测中的应用,同时也验证了改进方法的有效性和实用性。Some mathematical processing methods are tried to improve the GM （1,1） model from modeling mechanism and reduce the inherited error caused by the defect of modeling method. The improved model is more flexible and more precise than the traditional one, thus the applicable scope of the GM （1,1） predictive model is widened greatly. The application of improved GM （1,1） model for the prediction of cargo volume of waterway transportation is discussed combining with examples and the results prove the validity and practicability of the improved method.

关 键 词：MATLAB 灰色系统 GM(1 1)模型 改进 水运量 

分 类 号：U691.71[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]