计及气温因素的年度负荷预测修正方法  

Exploration on Calibration Method for Yearly Load Forecasting Considering Temperature

作　　者：罗凤章[1] 王成山[1] 肖峻[1] 侯磊[2] 王建民[3] 李亦农[3] 陈春琴[3] 王赛一[3] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学电力系统仿真控制教育部重点实验室,天津300072 [2]沧州供电公司,沧州061001 [3]上海市电力公司市区供电公司,上海200080

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2009年第3期75-79,共5页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

摘　　要：为剔除气温敏感负荷对发展趋于饱和地区年度负荷预测的影响,提出计及气温因素的年度负荷预测原始数据和预测结果修正方法。根据年最大负荷与年最高温度的分段线性关系建立综合调整模型,基于该模型提出了负荷预测历史数据还原和预测结果数据调整方法,并给出预测调整修正算例。实际算例表明,该方法在上海市区的负荷预测过程中能充分考虑最高气温对最大负荷的影响,提高了负荷预测的实用性和有效性。To eliminate the temperature-sensitive loads＇ influence on traditional yearly load forecasting, a calibration method for the historical load data and forecasting result considering the influence of temperature in urban areas＇ forecasting is proposed. A calibration model is built up, based on the subsection linearization relations between the peak load and the maximum temperature. In which, the first step is to correct the historical annual peak load and obtain the load which has no relations with temperature, then to forecast the objective year＇s load with traditional methods based on the corrected historical load data obtained above, and at last to calibrate the forecasting result according to the forecasting maximum temperature of the objective year. Case results indicate that the proposed method can take the temperature＇s influence on the peak load into account in the load forecasting of Shanghai, which will enhance the practicality and validity of load forecasting.

关 键 词：气温 负荷预测 修正 调整 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]