利用GPS数据和实时概率模型评估川滇南部中长期地震危险性  

MIDDLE AND LONG-TERM SEISMIC RISK EVALUATION OF SOUTHERN SICHUAN-YUNNAN REGION BASED ON GPS DATA AND REAL-TIME PROBABILISTIC MODEL

作　　者：张效亮[1] 谢富仁[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地壳应力研究所,北京100085

出　　处：《大地测量与地球动力学》2009年第3期38-41,共4页Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics

基　　金：国家科技支撑项目(2006BAC13B01-03);中国区划图编制项目(2007)

摘　　要：应用GPS数据确定法和地震矩率法计算了川滇南部主要活动断裂分段特征地震复发间隔,在此基础上,运用实时概率模型计算了各条断裂未来10年、30年、50年、100年的发震概率。结果表明,川滇南部未来百年特征地震复发的可能性按概率值大小依次为:安宁河断裂带小相岭段,小江断裂东川段,安宁河断裂带冕宁西昌段,则木河断裂带,丽江-小金河断裂丽江宁蒗段,小江断裂带华宁段,小江断裂带嵩明宜良段和红河断裂带北西段。We calculated the recurrence intervals of characteristic earthquakes of major active faults in southem Sichuan-Yunnan region with GPS data method and seismic moment method and the characteristic earthquake probabilities derived from real-time models in the future 10 a,30 a,50 a and 100 a. The results show that the values of probability for earthquake recurrence in the southern Sichuan-Yunnan region are as follows： Xiaoxiangling segment of Anninghe fault, Dongchuan segment of Xiaojiang fault, Mianning-Xichang segment of Anninghe fault, Zemuhe fault, Lijiang-Ninglang segment of Lijiang-Xiaojinhe fault, Huaning and Songming-Yiliang segments of Xiaojiang fault and northwestern segment of Red River fault.

关 键 词：GPS 地震复发间隔 发震概率 实时概率模型 川滇地区 

分 类 号：O242[理学—计算数学] P315.75[理学—数学]