吉林省生态经济系统能值分析与情景预测  

Emergy analysis and scenario prediction of Jilin eco-economic system

作　　者：李名升[1,2] 佟连军[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所,长春130012 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《中国科学院研究生院学报》2009年第4期458-465,共8页Journal of the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40571041)资助

摘　　要：目前的能值研究重评价而缺乏预测功能.鉴于此,在分析吉林省生态经济系统能值发展趋势后建立了情景预测模型,对该省不可更新资源能值进行预测.结果显示:(1)吉林省能值流量均有不同程度的增长,生态经济系统发展程度不断提高的同时环境压力随之增长;(2)7个能值效率指标中有4个呈恶化趋势,系统代谢效率有所下降;(3)吉林省可持续发展能力在研究期内不断下降,反映出经济发展尚依靠资源大量消耗和环境负荷的上升;(4)吉林省不可更新资源能值将保持年均10%以上的增速,资源消耗和环境压力将进一步增大;(5)未来一段时间影响吉林省能值增长的关键因素是资源(不包括能源),其影响程度要大于能源,且重要性会逐年增大.Abstract Emergy analysis was usually used to evaluate eco-economic system without prediction ability. In view of this, after analyzing the trend of Jilin eco-economic system, scenario prediction model was established to forecast the emergy value of nonrenewable resources. The main results could be summarized as follows ： （ 1 ） All emergy flows increased in various degrees, showing that development level of eco-economic system enhanced remarkably with the increasing environmental pressure; （2） 4 emergy efficiency indicators became worse, and the metabolic efficiency dropped to a certain extent; （3） Sustainable development ability declined steadily throughout the analysis period, indicating that economic growth was at the cost of excessive resource consumption with increase of environmental pressure; （4） The emergy value of nonrenewable resources would maintain an average annual growth rate of more than 10% in the following 4 years, and resources consumption as well as environmental pressure would further increase; （5） In the near future the key factor influencing emergy amount would be resources （excluding energy） whose effect on emergy was greater than that of energy, and it would be more and more important.

关 键 词：能值分析 情景预测 策略变量 吉林省 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]