地震压埋人员压埋率预估模型  

Prediction Model for Buried Personnel Probabilty in Earthquake

作　　者：肖东升[1,2] 黄丁发[1] 陈维锋[3] 彭晋川[3] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学土木工程学院,四川成都610031 [2]西南石油大学建筑工程学院,四川成都610050 [3]四川省地震局,四川成都610041

出　　处：《西南交通大学学报》2009年第4期574-579,共6页Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University

基　　金：公益性行业科研专项资助项目(200808063);国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2006BAC13B04)

摘　　要：针对震后快速反应与应急救援辅助决策的需要,在分析地震压埋人员影响因素的基础上,建立了基于倒塌率和在室率的压埋率预估模型.把在室率作为先验概率,为快速预估地震压埋率提供了条件.最后,以汶川地震灾区部分中小学为例,用建立的压埋率模型进行估计,并运用误差理论进行了精度分析.结果表明,该压埋率模型的预估精度达±0.2左右.To meet the demand of fast response and lifesaving assistant decision-making, a model for buried personnel probabihy in an earthquake was established based on collapsing ratio and in-building probabilty by analyzing factors influencing the buried personnel probabihy. In this model, the inbuilding probabihy is used as the prior probability. By taking elementary and middle schools in the disaster areas in the Wenchuan earthquake as examples, the situation of buried personnel was explained with the established model, and its precision was analyzed with the error theory. The analysis result shows that the precision of the established model is about ±0.2.

关 键 词：地震 倒塌率 在室率 压埋率 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]