一种新的车队离散模型及其应用  

A new platoon dispersion model and its application

作　　者：王殿海[1] 李凤[1] 宋现敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学交通学院,长春130022

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（工学版）》2009年第4期891-895,共5页Journal of Jilin University:Engineering and Technology Edition

基　　金：'973'国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2006CB705505);'863'国家高技术研究发展计划项目(2007AA11Z209)

摘　　要：为分析车队离散模型在实际中的适用性,以长春市交通调查数据为基础,分析并验证了经典车队离散模型,建立了基于无变换正态分布的车队离散模型。验证结果表明,本文建立的车队离散模型预测效果更佳。同时,根据不同位置的检测器数据和车队离散模型提出交通流量反馈机制预测方法,验证表明该方法能够提高流量预测精度,对城市交通控制具有重要的理论意义和实用价值。To analyze the applicability of the platoon dispersion model in the real world, the traditional platoon dispersion model was analyzed and validated by the traffic flow survey data in Changchun city, Jilin province, China. A new platoon dispersion model based on the non-transformation normal distribution was established. Validation results indicate that the established model is characterized by better prediction effect. A traffic flow predicting approach with feedback mechanism was proposed based on the data from the detectors at different locations and using the established platoon dispersion model. It was proved that the proposed approach offers a good traffic flow predicting precision, being important theoretically and practically for the urban traffic control.

关 键 词：交通运输系统工程 车队离散模型 交通流量预测 反馈机制 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]