基于分位数回归的中国居民收入和消费的实证分析  

Empirical Analysis of Chinese Residents' Income and Consumption Based on Quantile Regression

作　　者：陈建宝[1] 杜小敏[2] 董海龙[2] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学宏观经济研究中心,福建厦门361005 [2]厦门大学计划统计系,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2009年第7期44-50,共7页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家社会科学重大基金项目<扩大内需的宏观经济政策研究>(08ZD034);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地基金项目<中国地区间收入分配差异与劳动力转移的经济增长效应分析>(07JJD790145);教育部人文社会科学基金研究项目<数据挖掘中关联规则的统计研究和应用>(06JA910003)

摘　　要：阐述制约中国内需不足的几个主要因素,利用描述性统计和非参数方法重点考察中国居民收入差距的现状及其对扩大内需的重要影响。同时利用分位数回归技术对中国城镇和农村按收入等级划分的居民消费状况进行实证分析,结果表明:居民收入差距的确是制约中国内需不足的重要因素,不同收入阶层其边际消费倾向大不相同,并估算出这种消费倾向的具体值。从收入差距的视角提出了提高中国国内居民消费水平以便扩大内需的政策建议。In this paper, the authors first state several main influential factors for consumption. Descriptive statistical methods and nonparametric statistical methods are employed to investigate the current situation of income gap among Chinese residents and its important influence for prompting interior consumption. Then we use quantile regression technique to do empirical analysis for the consumption cases of Chinese urban and rural residents according to different quantiles of income. We find the income gap among residents is indeed an important factor for prompting interior consumption and obtain its effect for different quantiles of income. Finally, some policy suggestions for prompting consumption level of Chinese residents and increasing interior consumption are proposed from the point view of income gap.

关 键 词：收入差距 内需 非参数检验 分位数回归 

分 类 号：F222.34[经济管理—国民经济]