厦门市生态经济系统物质流分析  

Material flow analysis of Xiamen City's eco-economic system

作　　者：魏婷[1,2] 朱晓东[1] 

机构地区：[1]污染控制与资源化研究国家重点实验室,南京大学环境学院,南京210093 [2]国家海洋信息中心,天津300171

出　　处：《生态学报》2009年第7期3800-3810,共11页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40576024);国家海洋局908专项资助项目(908-02-04-08)

摘　　要：运用物质流分析(MFA)方法和STIRPAT模型,对1996～2007年厦门生态经济系统物质输入与输出进行分析,结果表明:(1)在不考虑水的情况下,物质输入与输出不断增加(年均增长率分别为11.48%、11.41%),但均小于GDP增长速度(15.94%),二者成正比;物质流增长集中表现在对金属、非金属矿物的需求及化石燃料燃烧废气、工业废气的排放。(2)用水量和废水排放量均不断增加,尤以生活污水排放量增长速度较快,加重了区域环境的压力。(3)物质输入与GDP、物质输出与GDP呈良好线性关系。厦门经济发展很大程度上依赖资源消耗。(4)单位GDP物质输入与输出均不断减小,表明资源利用率、处置率明显提高,区域逐步走向生态环境与社会经济的协调发展。(5)构建了厦门物质输入驱动机制的STIRPAT模型,得出人口数量、富裕程度、技术水平或经济结构每分别发生1%的变化,将引起输入量相应发生0.99%、0.98%、0.17%、0.31%的变化。提升技术水平和优化经济结构具有较大调控空间,将是厦门物质减量化战略的实施重点。The economic and ecological aspects of a social system are coherently linked and can be examined by evaluating their material and energy flows. The material inputs and outputs of Xiamen City from 1996 to 2007 were analyzed using material flow analysis （MFA） and the STIRPAT model The results show that, （1） excluding water, material inputs and outputs rose persistently at mean annual rates of 11.48% and 11.41%, respectively, but both were lower than the rate of GDP growth （15.94%）. The growth in material inputs was directly proportional to the growth in material outputs. The metal, nonmetallic mineral, and waste gas of fuel burning and industry provided the greatest contribution to material flow （2） The total water input and output rose, with a faster rising rate of domestic wastewater emission which aggravated regional environmental pressures. （3） The material inputs and outputs were linearly correlated with GDP. The economic development in Xiamen City depended heavily on resource consumption. （4） Both the material inputs and outputs per GDP decreased consistently at mean annual rates of 3. 85% and 3.91%, respectively. These results suggest that resourc.e utilization efficiency and pollutant releasing efficiency in Xiamen City have been increasing and that the economic growth was accompanied by a slower growth of environmental impact. （5） Additionally, the STIRPAT model was used to quantify the impact of and economic various driving forces on material inputs, including total population （P）, affluence （ structure material input amount （ES）. The respectively, results show that a 1% change in P or A results in a 0.99% A） , technology （T） , or 0.98% change in and a 1% change in T or ES results in a 0. 17% or 0.31% change respectively.Elevating technology level and optimizing economic structure capable of wide development will be the focus of dematerialization strategy.

关 键 词：物质流分析 生态经济系统 可持续发展 STIRPAT模型 厦门市 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] F224[环境科学与工程—环境科学] X22