我国供给和需求冲击的区域差异效应研究——基于结构VAR的分析  

Differential Regional Effects of Supply and Demand Shock in China Based on Structural VAR

作　　者：张文彬[1] 童笛[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学区域与城市经济研究所,北京100872 [2]中国人民大学经济学院,北京100872

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2009年第4期80-89,共10页Modern Economic Science

基　　金：中国人民大学研究生科学研究基金项目的阶段性成果(项目名称:中国区域经济波动的差异性及影响因素分析;项目编号:08XNG008);国家社科基金项目"月度数据基础上中国经济周期波动分析模型的设计与应用"(批准号:07BJL015)的资助

摘　　要：本文根据Blanchard and Quah发展的结构VAR技术,将影响中国沿海和内陆地区实际GDP与通货膨胀率的冲击分解为供给和需求冲击。估算结果发现,沿海和内陆地区供给冲击的同步性较高但呈下降趋势,需求冲击的同步性弱于供给冲击,不过呈提高趋势,但由于"区域协调"而降低了其短期内的同步性。根据累积脉冲响应函数和预测误差方差分解结果,实际GDP和价格水平波动的绝大部分分别来自于供给和需求冲击,需求层面的"区域协调"对缩小区域差距无济于事,反而引致内陆地区的价格波动。各地区对供给和需求冲击反应的差异,使得在宏观调控和区域协调方面产生效率和区域平等、需求管理型宏观政策有效性和区域平等的两难困境。破解之道在于从影响区域反应差异的因素入手,提高内陆地区实际产出对内陆地区正向供给、需求冲击的反应强度和降低沿海需求冲击对内陆地区的负效应。Data on output and prices for coastal and non-coastal regions of China are analyzed to extract information on underlying aggregate supply and demand shocks using SVAR decomposition. The results show that,the synchronicity of supply shocks between the two regions tending to be lowing is higher than the synchronicity of demand shocks,which tend to be higher in medium term and lower in short run due to the 'Regional Coordination'. Based on the result of accumulated response functions and variance decomposition,supply shocks appear to be quite important for real GDP fluctuations and so do demand shocks for price fluctuation at all horizons,so the 'Regional Coordination' from demand shocks is without effect on regional disparity. Because of the different regional effects of supply and demand shocks,the Macro-control and regional coordination face the two dilemmas of efficiency and regional equality,effect of macro-economic policy and regional equality,thus,for non-coastal regions,the magnitude of real output response to the positive supply and demand shocks from non-coastal regions should be strengthened and the negative effects of the demand shocks from coastal regions should be weakened by reasonable measures.

关 键 词：结构VAR 供给冲击 需求冲击 区域差异效应 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F224