济源“创模”中节能降耗方案情景分析初探  

Studies on Energy Reducing Based on Scenario Analysis Method,Jiyuan City

作　　者：曹秀丽[1] 于鲁冀[2] 王莉[2] 赵勇钧 

机构地区：[1]郑州大学环境与水利学院环境评价室,河南郑州450002 [2]郑州大学环境与水利学院,河南郑州450002 [3]济源市环保局,河南济源454650

出　　处：《环境科学与管理》2009年第7期147-149,共3页Environmental Science and Management

基　　金：国家软科学研究计划(2006DGS1K012-5)

摘　　要：河南省济源市于2006年提出创建国家环境保护模范城市(简称"创模")的申请,但是其规模以上单位工业增加值能耗指标过高、不能满足"创模"要求。基于济源市政府提出三年内"创模"成功要求,本文在综合分析济源市能耗现状和能耗高原因的基础上,借助情景分析法,对该指标分别从节能技术、城市工业发展规模、城市工业内部结构调整、城市工业增加值变化等不同发展途径下的演变趋势进行情景分析并定量预测。在上述分析的基础上,通过经济效益和环境效益的综合比较,推荐济源市最佳节能方案,以满足城市"创模"考核要求。Jiyuan city, Henan Province, put forward its application for the National Model City in Environmental Protection in 2006. However, its energy consumption per unit of scaled -industry was so high that it couldn＇t satisfy the index checked. With its willing for the success in its application in three years, this paper analyzed its present conditions and reasons of energy consumption. With the application of scenario analysis method, the paper designs four scenarios, which included improving technologies, altering its industry developing speed and structure, increasing its industry production etc. , to forecast quanlatitively the very indicator-energy consumption per unit of scaled - industry production increased per year, appraised in 2009. After analyzing the forecasted results, we recommend the optimal alternative for the reduction of its enegy consumption.

关 键 词：节能降耗 情景分析 济源市 “创模” 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]