市场行为的进化和控制——个出租车市场的例子  

The Evolution and Control of Market Behavior ——A Case Study on the Taxi Market

作　　者：贲金锋[1] 刘朝阳[1] 郑维敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》1998年第7期30-36,共7页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

摘　　要：经济主体在市场中的行为通常只能依赖于不完备的信息，但是即使如此，每个经济个体还是会根据所处的宏观环境修正自身的行为策略以提高收益状况，从而构成市场行为进化中的宏观结构与微观行为相互影响的自组织现象；所谓市场的“习惯”正是这种自组织进化的结果；但是，由于信息的不完备和初始条件的不同，使得通过自组织形成的市场规范不一定会达到最优状态；因此，必要的干预是不可缺少的。本文以出租车市场为例，利用一个进化对策模型模拟了市场行为的进化规律，并通过对参数的讨论分析了控制市场行为进化方向的策略与方法。The behavior of the economic agents in the market can only be based on incomplete information.In spite of this,each agent is trying to adapt to the macro environmental conditions in order to get more revenue.That's why self organization happens in the evolution of market behavior with the interactions between marco structure and micro activities. As a result of self organization or auto catalysis, the market habits are formed,which may not be the expected optimal state of market because of the nature of market dynamics and different initial conditions,etc.Thus, some kind of external control is needed to lead the system into an expected state.In this paper, an evolutionary games model of the taxi market was built and studied.

关 键 词：市场行为 信息不完备 进化对策 自组织 

分 类 号：F713.5[经济管理—市场营销]