公路长大下坡路段小客车运行速度预测模型  

Speed prediction model of free-flowing passenger car on long and steep downgrades

作　　者：邓云潮[1] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学工程设计研究院,陕西西安710064

出　　处：《长安大学学报（自然科学版）》2009年第4期43-47,共5页Journal of Chang’an University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：青海省交通科技计划项目(200331800059)

摘　　要：为了提高高等级公路长大下坡路段交通安全设施设置的合理性,给出了长大下坡路段小客车运行速度数据采集方案;利用数理统计原理,分析了高等级公路长大下坡路段小客车运行速度与坡长、坡度的关系,建立了高等级公路长大下坡路段小客车运行速度的一般预测模型,利用长大下坡路段实测数据对该模型进行了验证。预测车速与观测车速对比结果表明:各观测断面的预测车速与实地观测车速数值基本相符,高等级公路长大下坡路段车辆的运行速度主要受平均纵坡和坡长的影响;根据实测数据建立的车速预测模型能够反映高等级公路长大下坡路段小客车运行速度的分布规律。In order to improve the rationality of the safety facilities set on long and steep downgrades section of high grade highways, this paper put forward the project to collect the operating speed data of free-flowing passenger car on the long and steep downgrades, analyzed the relationship among operating speed, length and slope of the highway according to statistics principle, built common speed prediction model of free-flowing passenger car on long and steep downgrades of high-grade highways, established multiple regression equation for operating speed prediction model of free-flowing passenger ear on a certain long and steep downgrades section of a first-class highway in Qinghai Province by regression analysis of practical test data. The comparison between the observation speed and prediction speed show that the predictive values and observed values of the ear speed on the survey sections are basically same, the operating speed of car on the long and steep downgrades is mainly affected by length and slope, and the operating speed prediction model of free flowing passenger car on a certain long and steep downgrades can reflect the change law of the speed of the car running on the long and steep downgrades section. 7 tabs, 8 figs, 10 refs.

关 键 词：道路工程 长大下坡路段 运行速度 预测模型 

分 类 号：U412.3[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程] U491.14