考虑温度积累效应的短期电力负荷预测方法研究  

Study on the method of short-term load forecasting considering the accumulation effect of temperature

作　　者：陈根永[1] 史敬天[1] 毛晓波[1] 陈肖一 姚晓明 彭保宏 

机构地区：[1]郑州大学电气工程学院,河南郑州450001 [2]河南省许昌县电业局,河南许昌461000

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2009年第16期24-28,共5页Power System Protection and Control

基　　金：河南省自然科学基金资助项目(0611052900)~~

摘　　要：提出了一种考虑夏季温度积累效应的地区短期负荷预测方法。该方法不仅考虑了对短期负荷有影响的日类型、降水、温度等相关因素,并且考虑了在连续高温日情况下,预测日前数日的温度对预测当日的影响。通过利用神经网络工具,对每日48个时刻点分别建立了预测模型。通过对华中某地区电网的实际负荷预测结果的分析来看,该方法可以有效跟踪预测日前数日温度积累对预测日负荷的影响,在夏季负荷大幅变化的情况下,预测精度仍然可以满足要求。A short-time load forecasting method considering the accumulation effect of temperature in summer is presented in this paper ,which not only considers the day type, precipitation, temperature, and other related factors, but also considers the effect of temperature of the other day to the very day in the case of continuous high temperatures. By virtue of the tool of ANN, this paper sets up every single forecast model of total 48 points in one day. It can be proved that this method can follow the effect of temperature of the other days to the load of the very day by the analysis of the actual load forecasting for somewhere of Central China, and get a satisfactory forecast precision in the case of load fluctuating greatlv in summer.

关 键 词：短期负荷预测 积累效应 神经网络 电力系统 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]