典型流域土地利用/覆被变化预测及景观生态效应分析——以太湖上游西苕溪流域为例  

LAND USE/COVER FORECASTING OF CATCHMENT AND ITS LANDSCAPE ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS:A CASE STUDY OF XITIAOXI CATCHMENT IN THE UPPER REACHES OF TAIHU BASIN

作　　者：陈莹[1] 尹义星[1] 陈爽[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏南京210093 [2]中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,江苏南京210008

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2009年第8期765-770,共6页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(40730635);国家自然科学基金项目(40571025);国家基础科学人才基金(J0630535);国家科技支撑计划专题(2006BAB14B07-03);高校博士点基金项目(20060284019)

摘　　要：以太湖上游西苕溪流域为研究区，基于1985和2002年土地利用空间数据，结合土地利用变化的驱动因子，运用马尔科夫模型和CLUE-S模型，模拟了研究区2020年土地利用的空间格局；在此基础上，通过对斑块类型和景观水平上格局指数的变化分析，揭示研究区未来土地利用／覆被变化及其景观生态效应。结果表明：按照1985-2002年土地利用变化的发展趋势，未来研究区土地利用变化主要表现为建设用地面积大幅度增加，耕地、林地面积减小，研究区未来景观格局指数将发生较大的变化。在景观尺度上，斑块数量、边缘密度、多样性指数、均匀度指数、分维数等指标都呈增加趋势，而斑块平均面积减小，表现出景观结构破碎化、斑块形状复杂化、景观向多样性和均匀化发展的特点；而从斑块类型水平上看，各景观类型之间的景观格局指数变化差异较大，反映了生态系统的复杂性。Taking Xitiaoxi catchment located in the upper reaches of Taihu Lake basin as a case, the land use scenario in 2020 is simulated by applying CLUE-S model and Markov model with the spatial data of land use in 1985 and 2002 and the driving factors affecting land use change. Based on the forecasted land use map of 2020, the temporal and spatial patterns of land use are investigated with landscape metrics from both class and landscape levels. The results reveal that the significant characteristics of land use change in the future will be the increase of construction land and the decrease of farmland and forest land. In the future, the landscape metrics in the study area will change greatly. In the landscape level, patch number, patch density, diversity and evenness index and shape indices all increase, while the average patch area decreases. It indicates that the landscape is fragmenting, the patch shape is becoming more complicated, and the land use will advance toward diversity and homogenization. Moreover, the landscape heterogeneity varies with different kinds of landscapes, indicating the complexity of landscape ecosystem.

关 键 词：土地利用/覆被变化 空间格局模拟 景观格局 西苕溪流域 

分 类 号：X143[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]