未来气候变化对中国东北三省玉米需水量的影响预测  

Impact forecast of future climate change on maize water requirement in three provinces of Northeast China

作　　者：张建平[1,2] 王春乙[3] 杨晓光[1] 赵艳霞[3] 刘志娟[1] 王靖[1] 陈艳英 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193 [2]重庆市气象科学研究所,重庆401147 [3]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2009年第7期50-55,共6页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)计划课题(2009CB118608);国家科技支撑计划课题(2006BAD04B09);公益性行业(农业)科研专项项目(GYHY200803028);公益性行业(气象)科研专项项目(GYHY200806008);科技部基础性科技专项(2007FY120100)

摘　　要：为了预测未来气候变化对中国东北三省玉米需水量的影响,该文在对中国东北三省近26a来玉米生育期内参考作物蒸散量变化及玉米需水量分析的基础上,结合《排放情景特别报告》(Special Report on Emissions Scenarios,SRES)的两种排放情景A2(强调经济发展)和B2(强调可持续发展)预估的未来气候情景,研究探讨了未来气候情景下中国东北三省玉米需水量的变化趋势。结果表明,未来气候变化情景下,东北三省玉米需水量距平百分率大多表现为增加的趋势,最高可增加77.8%,而且不同地理环境及气候差异下,各地空间分布上也不尽相同。A2情景下,到2040年玉米需水量距平百分率平均增加27.2%,到2070年玉米需水量距平百分率平均增加34.5%,到2100年玉米需水量距平百分率平均增加42.9%;B2情景下,到2040年玉米需水量距平百分率平均增加28.6%,到2070年玉米需水量距平百分率平均增加33.3%,到2100年玉米需水量距平百分率平均增加37.3%。可见,未来中国东北三省水资源可能更趋于短缺状况。Based on the change of the reference crop evapotranspiration and crop water requirement during development stage of maize in recent 26 years in three provinces of Northeast China,combined with the climate change scenario A2（concentration on the economic development）and B2（concentration on the sustainable development）of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios（SRES）,the change trend of impact of future climate change on maize water requirement was studied.Results showed that there would be a significant increasing trend in anomaly percentage of maize water requirement under climate change in most sites in three provinces of Northeast China,the increased amount would even be about 77.8%at most,and the spatial distribution of water requirement was different under different geographical and climatic environment.Under A2 scenario,anomaly percentage of maize water requirement might increase by about 27.2%by 2040,about 34.5%by 2070 and 42.9%by 2100;Under B2 scenario,anomaly percentage of maize water requirement might also increase by about 28.6% by 2040,about 33.3%by 2070 and 37.3%by 2100.So there will be a tendency of water resource deficiency in three provinces of Northeast China in the future.

关 键 词：气候变化 参考作物蒸散量 水资源 作物 玉米 需水量 

分 类 号：S165.21[农业科学—农业气象学]