基于随机动态模型的矿井瓦斯涌出量预测研究  

Study on prediction ot mine gas emission quantity base on random dynamic model

作　　者：徐刚[1] 罗飞飞[1] 邓绪彪[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)煤炭资源与安全开采国家重点实验室,北京100083

出　　处：《煤炭工程》2009年第8期79-81,共3页Coal Engineering

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)资助项目(2009cb219600)

摘　　要：为了对矿井瓦斯涌出量进行预测,基于灰色系统和时间序列分析的基本理论,建立了矿井瓦斯涌出量预测的随机动态模型,并将该模型应用到某矿瓦斯涌出量预测分析中。实例应用表明,随机动态模型在矿井瓦斯涌出量预测方面是有效的,预测结果正确可靠,反映出了矿井瓦斯涌出量的发展态势。In order to predict the mine gas emission quantity, base on the basic theory of the grey system and the time sequence analysis, a random dynamic model to predict the mine gas emission quantity was established. The model was applied to the prediction of the mine gas emission quantity for a mine. The practical application showed that the random dynamic model was effective in the prediction of the mine gas emission quantity. The prediction results were correct and reliable and was reflecting the development tendency of mine gas emission quantity.

关 键 词：随机动态模型 瓦斯涌出量 预测 时间序列分析 

分 类 号：TD712[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]