工农业关系与经济发展：计划经济时代的历史计量学再考察--兼与姚洋、郑东雅商榷  

Economic Development and Relation between the Industry and Agriculture Sectors:The Chinese Planning Economy Revisited in Cliometrics

作　　者：孙圣民[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]山东大学经济研究院(中心) [2]山东大学历史学博士后科研流动站,250100

出　　处：《经济研究》2009年第8期135-147,共13页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：第四十三批中国博士后科学基金;山东省博士后创新项目专项资金(编号200802037);山东省软科学研究项目(编号2008RKB063)资助

摘　　要：计划经济时代实施农业支持重工业的政策和推行工业化战略无可厚非,但在实施这种战略、调节工农业关系的方式方法上存在调度失误。用人民公社体制来调节工农业关系,相对互助合作经营制度而言,这种制度安排并不是加速工业化积累的必要条件,还部分抑制了农业生产效率,对工农业生产而言都存在帕累托改进的可能。调度失误引发的损失是:农业产值和农民收入各损失了1/3的潜在收益,工业部门损失了多则8%少则2%的潜在农业剩余支持。损失的社会剩余总量,至少是同时期转移给工业的农业剩余量的两倍,调度失误的损失远大于推进工业化战略的成本。本文还揭示了改革之初推行家庭联产承包责任制改革,带动整体经济增量改革的逻辑。There are some mistakes in dealing with the relation between the industry and the agriculture sectors during the period of Chinese planning economy. China＇s heavy-industry development strategy with the support of agriculture is maybe right, the method adopted by the nation is maybe wrong. In the paper, we find that the efficiency in agriculture was low and the industrial elite also didn＇ t get the more benefits from the agriculture sector during the Commune System. Experiential analysis based on the Cliometrics supports the conclusion. If the cooperative economy that existed from 1952 to 1956 were carried out from 1957 to 1978, the gross value of agricultural output would increase 1/3 at least, and the tax of the agriculture sector taking out by the government in order to develop the industry sector would increase 1.8 % or 8.0 % at least. The lost of social saving in the Commune System is double to the benefits of industry transferring from the agriculture in fact. We also make clear why the household responsibility system leads to the reform in 1978.

关 键 词：工农业关系 制度 调度失误 历史计量学 

分 类 号：F303[经济管理—产业经济] F403F061.2