中国农业EKC研究:以化肥为例  

Study on Chinese Agricultural EKC: Evidence from Fertilizer

作　　者：刘扬[1] 陈劭锋[1] 张云芳[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190 [2]中国农业大学,北京100083

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2009年第16期263-267,共5页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所所长基金"可持续发展模拟和评估中的计算问题研究"(0800561J01);国家自然科学基金资助项目"可持续发展多维临界复杂响应及其调控研究"(40571062)

摘　　要：针对中国农业经济发展与环境关系的演变问题,开展农业环境库兹尼茨曲线研究,验证农业经济增长与农用化肥使用量间的倒U型曲线关系。采用非线性回归的方法,对中国及31个省市1949到2007年间的化肥、人口、农业总产值数据进行实证分析。实证分析的结果表明,除了4个省市外,中国化肥施用量无论是人均还是总量都与人均农业总产值间存在着EKC关系,但在形状上分别表现为倒U型、N型和上升型,其中7个省市为倒U型、10个为N型和10个为上升型。虽然中国化肥施用量总体上呈现出化肥EKC曲线关系,但除7个省市的化肥施用量出现倒U型的右侧曲线外,大多数省市仍处于上升和不稳定状态,可见,除了收入水平外,还存在其他一些影响因素,诸如技术进步、生产方式、价格等,这些因素导致了化肥EKC问题的复杂化,因此,对于农业EKC的研究还有待进一步深入研究。On account of evolution of the relationship between Chinese agricultural economic development and environment, this paper carries out an EKC research to find evidence of an inverse U-shaped relationship between economic growth and fertilizer use. By using nonlinear regression method, this paper analyzed fertilizer, population and agricultural output value （AOV） data from 1949 to 2007 year in China. The result showed that, there was not only an inverse U-shaped relationship between per capita fertilizer use and per capita AOV in China, but also total fertilizer use. Moreover, except 4 provinces, there was a turning point between per capita fertilizer use and per capita AOV in most provinces of China. But just only 7 provinces had a downward tendency of fertilizer use. The fertilizer use of most other provinces was still increasing. Except income level, there were some important factors such as technological progress, mode of production and price, which also had an impact on fertilizer use. So there still need to make more intensive study of agricultural EKC.

关 键 词：环境库兹尼茨曲线 人口 人均化肥施用量 人均农业总产值 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]