凯恩斯主义财政政策质疑  

Query of the Fiscal Policy of Keynesianism

作　　者：余斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院马克思主义研究院,北京100732

出　　处：《经济经纬》2009年第4期118-121,共4页Economic Survey

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究2006年度规划项目"马克思主义公平与效率的研究"(项目批准号:06JA810002)的研究成果之一

摘　　要：美国金融危机之后,凯恩斯主义重新在世界主要资本主义国家兴起。但是,凯恩斯本人在代表作《就业、利息和货币通论》中的理论并不成立,其中的乘数模型就是一个典型的例子。实际上,凯恩斯乘数模型只不过是一个因果倒置的结果,混淆了两种不同的收入和投资的关系。从而凯恩斯乘数的实质不是乘数=产出的变动/投资的变动,而是乘数=产出的变动/没有消费掉的产出的变动,即它仅仅反映的是产出中有多少部分没有被消费掉。那些建立在错误理论上的凯恩斯主义财政政策只能在比较罕见的机缘巧合的情况下才有可能成功。After the American Financial Crisis, Keynesianism rises again in the main capitalist countries of the world. However, Keynes＇ s theory in his masterpiece The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money is untenable and a typical example is muhiplier model. In fact, Keynes＇ s muhiplier model is only a result of inverted cause and effect and confuses two different kinds of income and investment relationships. Therefore, the essence of Keynes＇ s multiplier is not that multiplier equals output variance divided by investment variance, but that multiplier equals output variance divided by unconsumed output variance, namely, it only shows how much is unconsumed in the output. The fiscal policy of Keynesianism which is based on a wrong theory can only be effective accidentally in rare circumstances.

关 键 词：乘数模型 宏观经济学 投资 收入 凯恩斯 

分 类 号：F810[经济管理—财政学] F091.348