上市公司财务危机预警实证研究  

A study on early warning for listed companies' financial distress

作　　者：李益骐[1] 田高良[2] 

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学继续教育学院,陕西西安710072 [2]西安交通大学管理学院,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《西北大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2009年第5期79-83,共5页Journal of Northwest University：Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70772110);西安交通大学"985"二期工程项目(07200701)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：通过采用样本分析等方法对中国证券市场上市公司的财务危机预警进行实证研究,首先对国内外财务预警的发展历程和研究成果进行了评述,对上市公司财务预警的相关理论及方法作了总结和分析。然后结合中国上市公司的现状和特点,设计了样本A,对样本分别从行业和规模方面进行了分析。选取了37个财务指标,并按照财务指标的特性分为6个组,根据t检验的p值大小在37个财务指标中筛选出若干指标,作为预测模型的初始输入变量。运用Logistic回归分析作为主要建模方法,数据收集的时间延至样本公司可能出现财务危机的前五年或财务恶化的前三年。在此基础上,通过实证研究检验出若干预警能力强的财务指标,建立了一套动态财务危机预警模型。最后,通过有效性检验,得出了2007年上市公司有54家出现财务危机,模型的总判别率为80.30%,并在此基础上指出了模型的实际运用情况。Through the use of a sample analysis of early Warn!ng Empirical Study of China＇s stock market listed companies to carry out the financial distress study, the appraisals of the financial forecast researches of domestic and foreign scholars based on the related theories methods of listed companiesfinancial forecast and their character- istics are given firstly. Then a sample A was anclyzed, which is designed in advance from two aspects of their indus- try and scale respectively. 37 financial indexes were selected and divided into 6 groups in terms of the characteristics of financial indexes and some indexes were screened out from 37 indexes according to the magnitude of p value from t - test as a set of initial input variables for forecast model. Logistic Recursive Analysis was used as the mainly model - built means. The time of data - collection extends to previous five years when the financial crisis occurred for the sample company, or even previous three years, when finance affairs begin to get worse. On the bases, some financial indexes were checked up with strongly forewarning capacity and a forewarning system was set up for dynam ic financial crisis of listed companies. Finally, through effective checkout, it was concluded that there are 54 listed companies in 2007 which lost money. The total different rate of the model is 80.30% and the practical exertion situation of the model is pointed out on the bases.

关 键 词：上市公司 财务危机 预警模型 LOGISTIC回归分析 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理]