长江下游百年一遇的极值风速分布  

Speed Distribution of 100-year Extreme Winds in Lower-reaches of the Yangtze

作　　者：黄世成[1] 周嘉陵[2] 任健[3] 陈兵 程婷 

机构地区：[1]江苏省气象科学研究所,南京210008 [2]江苏省气象台,南京210008 [3]江苏省气象局,南京210008 [4]江苏省气候中心,南京210008

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2009年第4期437-442,共6页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：江苏省自然科学基金重点项目(BK2006730);"十一五"国家科技支撑计划"苏通大桥建设关键技术研究"重点项目"安全减灾技术研究专题"(2006BAG04B06)共同资助

摘　　要：利用20002006年长江下游沿江8个风速、风向观测点与邻近气象站同步对比观测资料和19712006年长江下游40个气象站风资料，依据具99％置信水平的数理重构方案和极值I型计算方法，详细给出长江下游百年一遇风速分布状况。结果表明：长江下游沿江地区百年一遇极值风速为25～38m／s，较一般方法上限高3m／s，下限低2m／s；长江南京镇江段和南通一崇明段，是长江下游沿江地区的两个大风区，百年一遇极值风速不低于29m／s，其在人海口附近叮达34m／s以上；在长江常州江阴段，江南、江北对称分布两个风速相对低值区，百年一遇极值风速为23-24m／s。该结果充分考虑气象站风速资料和局地风速状况，是沿江相关工程气象应用的重要补充。In engineering meteorological application the basic wind speed of 100-year return period is commonly confirmed according to the recommend value of national regulation or China basic wind speed distribute map by the method of interpolation. In order to avoid both the potential hazard in engineering design and the higher cost in construction, which may be caused by the low resolution of the basic wind speed distribute map in lower-reaches of the Yangtze and the lacking of actual wind speed data along the river, eight short-term wind observation points are selected along lower-reaches of the Yangtze, and the observation runs synchronously with their neighboring meteorological stations from 2000 to 2006. So the observation program is set up to meet the demand of engineering constructions along lower-reaches of the Yangtze. The observation points are built by on side investigation to eliminate the extreme terrain effects and can represent the actual wind of the lower-reaches to the largest extent. At every observation point, it is assured that more than one year of simultaneous observation with its adjacent weather station is carried out, although the observational time for each point is not always homology. Based on the short-term synchronous wind data and the annual maximum wind speeds of 40 weather stations of lower-reaches of the Yangtze from 1971 to 2006, the 99 % confidence level logistic reconfiguration scheme and extreme value I type calculation procedure are referred also a new wind speed distributive status over lower reaches of the Yangtze is described in detail. Results indicate that along lower reaches of the Yangtze the 100-year return period maximum wind speed is 25 to 38 m . s^-1 which is 3 m . s^-1 larger than upper limit and 2 m . s^-1 smaller than lower limit of the result by the general method, lower-reaches of the Yangtze, two gale regions exist both in the Nanjing--Zhenjiang segment and in the Nantong--Chongming segment, where the 100-year return period maximum wind speed is greater than 29 m .

关 键 词：长江下游 置信上限 极值风速 

分 类 号：P468.026[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]