2000～2004年广州市某城区气温变化与居民死亡的关系分析  

Study on the Relationship between Temperature and Residential Death in a District of Guangzhou City from 2000 to 2004

作　　者：曲亚斌[1] 张建鹏[1] 戴昌芳[1] 王立斌[1] 梁辉[1] 何昌云[1] 金晓玲[1] 谭慧嘉[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东省疾病预防控制中心,广东广州510300

出　　处：《预防医学论坛》2009年第9期807-810,共4页Preventive Medicine Tribune

摘　　要：[目的]探讨气温对城区居民死亡的影响。[方法]收集2000-2004年广州市某城区居民死亡资料和相应时段的气象资料，分析热日、冷日、平日3类天气情况下居民死亡及死因的变化。[结果]广州市某区2000-2004年合计死亡15802例。月死亡率为40．79／10万～89．46／10万（62．25／10万±9．22／10万）；同期月平均气温为（13．6～30．5）℃（22．9±5．3）℃。观察期间，逐月死亡率与月平均气温呈负相关（r=-0．59，P〈O．01）。死亡率在冬季最冷月（1月）前后达最高峰．其他季节波动不大，在夏季最热月（8月）前后形成1个相对高峰。夏季最高气温在34℃以上时。随气温的升高死亡率显著增加；冬季最低气温在10℃以下时，死亡率显著增加。不同日均气温条件下，居民前5位死因中恶性肿瘤死亡数占全死因死亡数比例的差异有统计学意义（P〈0．05）。2004年6月27日至7月3日持续高温，6月25日至7月9日的半月内居民3日平均死亡30．6例，是当年夏季3日平均死亡数（24．1例）的1．27倍。[结论]广州市城区气温变化对某区居民死亡有显著影响，居民死亡率在气温高或气温低时均呈升高趋势。[Objective]To explore the impact of temperature to residential death in a district of Guangzhou. [Methods] Death records of residents who lived in the district and meteorological data of Guangzhou during 2000 to 2004 were collected. The change patterns of death were compared under three weather conditions,which were hot days, cold days, and normal days. [Results]The cumulative death number was 15 802 during 2000 to 2004,and monthly mortality was（40.79± 9.22）/100 000（40. 79-89. 46） /100 000. At the same period,the monthly average temperature was（22.9±5.3）℃ （13.6- 30. 5） ℃. The mortality curve reached the highest peak around the coldest month（January） of a year,and reached the relative peak around the hottest month（August） of a year. When the highest temperature was higher than 34℃ （hot days）, mortality increased obviously as the temperature increasing; when the lowest temperature was lower than 10℃ （cold days）, mortality increased significantly. The proportion of cancer in all death was significantly different under different temperature（ P d0. 05）. On a period of heat wave in Jun to July 2004,the average death number was 30. 6 in every three days during Jun 25th to July 9th,which was 1.27 times than the average number（24. 1） of that summer. [Conclusion]The temperature may significantly impact the residential death in the district of Guangzhou. The residential death rates may rise in both cold days and hot days.

关 键 词：天气 气温 死亡率 相关性 

分 类 号：R122.2[医药卫生—环境卫生学]