基于GIS的区域性粮食生产安全预警研究——以东北地区为例  

Early warning for grain production based on GIS——A Case Study in Northeast China

作　　者：李志斌[1,2] 陈佑启[1,2] 姚艳敏[1,2] 石淑芹[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]农业部资源遥感与数字农业重点开放实验室,北京100081 [2]中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《干旱地区农业研究》2009年第3期249-255,共7页Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas

基　　金：科技部科研院所社会公益研究专项"中国区域性耕地资源变化影响评价及其预警"(2004DIB3J092)

摘　　要：结合国内外粮食安全判定的相关指标和东北地区粮食生产的特点,选用人均粮食占有量和粮食产量波动系数作为区域粮食生产安全预警的指标;从全国粮食安全层面考虑,确定了区域各预警指标的警限。为了综合反映东北三省的粮食生产安全状况,建立了综合各预警指标的粮食生产安全指数,并在各指标警限基础上得到粮食生产安全预警指数的警限。然后借助GIS建立空间处理模型,实现粮食生产安全预警。研究结果表明,吉林和辽宁两省2000年粮食生产安全程度低于2003年,而黑龙江省则相反,其在2000年的粮食生产安全程度则高于2003年。东北地区的粮食贸易数据验证了该结论。Combining the domestic and international indices of grain security and the grain production characteristics in Northeast China,tow factors output of grain crops per capita and grain yield fluctuation coefficient are chosen as early warning indices,and their warning limitations of grain production security are developed considering the national food security level.Then,production safety index synthesizing every early warning index is constructed to reflect the grain production state of three provinces in Northeast China by GIS model. The results show that： the grain production safety degree of the two provinces of Jilin and Liaoning in 2000 was lower than that in 2003, but the result is opposite in Heilongjiang Province where grain production safety degree of 2000 is higher than that in 2003. The result can be validated by the grain trade in different provinces.

关 键 词：粮食生产安全 预警 东北地区 

分 类 号：F316.11[经济管理—产业经济]