试论矿难征兆学与预测预报  

Signs of learning in the mine accidents and the forecast

作　　者：武强[1] 张志龙[1] 赵苏启[2] 高庆华[3] 韩旭[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)水害防治与水资源研究所,北京100083 [2]国家煤矿安全监察局,北京100713 [3]中国地震局地质研究所,北京100029

出　　处：《煤炭学报》2009年第9期1184-1189,共6页Journal of China Coal Society

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40572149;40772162);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)基金资助项目(2006CB202205);"十一五"国家科技支撑项目(2007BAK24B01;2006BAB16B04)

摘　　要：为探讨矿难预测预报这一国际性难题,在系统地分析我国55 a来发生的煤矿矿难、地震、气象灾害等历史信息资料基础上,运用地壳运动效应、煤矿矿难机理和自然灾害征兆的基本理论,提出了矿难征兆学的概念,总结了我国煤矿矿难、地震和气象灾害发生的时、空特点,指出我国煤矿矿难、地震、气象灾害的发生在空间分布上具有一致性,在时间序列上具有相关性,但存在前移或滞后现象;最后提出了利用地震、气象灾害的征兆和效应信息进行煤矿矿难时、空域预测预报的可能.In order to solve the forecast problems of the mine accidents in China, based on the analyses of the history information on the coal mine accidents, the earthquakes and weather-related disasters ere for 55 years, put forward to a concept of the sign of learning in the mine accident, and summarized the characteristics of the temporal and spatial distribution of the coal mine accidents in China, the earthquakes and weather-related disasters etc. The results show that the coal mine accidents, earthquakes and weather-related disasters in China are of consistency in the space distribution, and are on the relevance but are of the features of forward or backward in the time sequence. Finally, the paper thinks that there is a forecast possibility for the mine accidents by using the signs of the earthquake and the meteorological disasters.

关 键 词：矿难征兆学 地震 气象灾害 煤矿矿难 预测预报 

分 类 号：TD7[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]