基于城市地块变化的地价预警研究  

On Land Price Early Warning Based on Change of City Land Block

作　　者：杨小雄[1] 冯小丽[2] 苏夏[1] 卢远[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西师范学院资源与环境科学学院,广西南宁530001 [2]南宁市国土资源局,广西南宁530022

出　　处：《广西师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2009年第4期13-17,共5页Journal of Guangxi Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(4076102);广西应用基础研究专项(0731022)

摘　　要：随着房地产价格持续升温,土地价格是否存在泡沫成为人们普遍关注的焦点。建立城市地价预警系统,对地价警情进行分析、预报,对保障城市经济的发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。现有的地产预警,主要从宏观上对时间序列的地价变化进行预警。从城市尺度下的地块条件变化角度看,基于地块变化的地价预警原理与方法,即通过测算地块的警情系数及其平均值及标准差,以标准差的大小作为确定地块地价警报级别的依据,并通过各地块的警情系数加权测算整个城市的警情系数更为科学合理。以广西桂平市为例的实证研究表明了该方法切实可行。With the constant rising of real estate prices in recent years, whether bubbles exist in land price has become the focus of concern. It is of theoretical and practical significance to establish early warning system to analyze and forecast land price and to sustain urban economic development. The existing estate early warning is achieved mainly through land price change according to time order on the macro level. This article proposes the principle and method of the land price early warning from the perspective of land block change, through measuring land block warning coefficient and its average value and the standard deviation. The standard deviation is the basis for determining land price warning levels and the entire city land price warning coefficient is measured through weighted estimates of all land block price warning coefficients. An empirical study of Gulping City in Guangxi shows that this method is feasible.

关 键 词：地块变化 地价 预警 警情系数 桂平市 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学] F301