基于FPT的入境旅游市场季节风险规避研究——以台湾客源为例  

Study of Inbound Tourism Market for Avoiding Seasonal Risk Based on FPT——A Case of Taiwan Tourist Market

作　　者：罗治得[1] 章锦河[1] 熊发礼[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院,安徽芜湖241003 [2]南京农业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210095 [3]金陵科技学院商学院,江苏南京211169

出　　处：《旅游论坛》2009年第3期439-445,共7页Tourism Forum

摘　　要：季节性是旅游业最典型的特征之一,也是旅游业常面临的风险问题,但有关如何规避旅游季节风险的研究比较少。基于1998-2007年中国入境旅游台湾客源市场客流月度分布数据,引入被广泛应用于证券市场的证券组合理论(Financialportfolio theory,简称FPT),构建旅游市场季节风险规避模型,运用季节分布曲线、SRI指数、SRCV系数对台湾市场的季节风险进行实证分析,并依据规避模型计算出一系列台湾市场季节风险最低时的有效月度市场组合,绘出规避台湾市场季节风险的有效边界,为规避其季节风险问题提供一种定量的分析方法,为制订针对台湾客源市场的入境旅游战略规划提供科学的决策依据,也为今后类似问题的研究提供分析方法的借鉴,指导中国旅游业可持续发展。Seasonality is one of the most representative attributes of tourism industry and it is often seen as a major risk problem that this industry has to face, but fewer studies have been made to avoid the seasonal risk of tourism. The paper, based on the data of monthly distribution of Taiwan tourist flows from 1998-2007, one of Chinese inbound tourism source markets, introduces the widely used financial portfolio theory in stock market, constrhcts a tourist market seasonal risk aversion model, applies seasonal distribution curve, SRI, SRCV to empirically analyze the seasonal risk of Taiwan market, and applies the model to calculate a series of effective mixes of Taiwan market, mixes of which have minimum risk for any level of return, drawn an efficient frontier based on the mixes and advises to choice mixes of monthly market from P6 to PS, proposes a quantitative approach which can be used to avoid the seasonal risk of Taiwan Residents tourist market of our inbound tourism, provides a scientific decisionmaking for the strategic planning of Taiwan market, also offers analytical method for future similar studies and guides the sustainable development of tourism in China.

关 键 词：入境旅游 证券组合理论 季节性 风险规避 台湾 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理] F224[经济管理—产业经济]