1980～1994年台湾海峡两岸的地热涡与降水季度预报初探  

PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS ON GEOTHERMAL VOR TEXES ACTIVITY IN BOTH SIDES OF TAI WAN STRAIGHT IN 1980-1994 AND THE PREDICATION OF SEASONAL RAINFALL

作　　者：汤懋苍[1,2] 柳中明[1,2] 高晓清[1] 冯松[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院兰州高原大气物理研究所 [2]台湾大学大气科学系

出　　处：《气象学报》1998年第5期611-618,共8页Acta Meteorologica Sinica

摘　　要：利用１９８０～１９９４年大陆３．２ｍ深度和台湾３．０ｍ深度的地温资料，分析了１５ａ来的逐季地气图，统计了台湾海峡两岸的地热涡活动，发现平均每季有１个地热涡活动，其水平尺度比大陆内部的地热涡要小，生命史也要短，进入台湾地区的地热涡绝大多数是从西方和北方进入，其移动速度比大陆内部的要快得多。９０％以上的地热涡在同期有多雨区与其对应，热涡中心与多雨中心相距在１００ｋｍ以内者占６８％。最后给出了一个季度降水的定性预测方案，其步骤为：预报地热涡的中心位置、强度和水平尺度；推算降水正距平区的水平尺度、中心位置和强度；根据本区发生的地震等情况进行预报订正。Based on the close reationship between geothermal vortex (henceforth GV) in soil temperature field in 320 cm depth and rainy area in mainland of China,the amount of summer rainfall for was predicated by us many years and the results are inspiring.In this paper,the soil temperature data in both sides of Taiwan Straight (henceforth BSTS) are analyzed with the similar way and a seasonal rainfall prediction program is put forward.Statistic results show that the GVs here have it's regional characteristics:the average scale of GVs here is 480 km,which is slightly smaller than that in the scale of GV in mainland (580 km).Moreover,the mean lasting time of GVs here (4.0 seasons) is 1.8 seasons shorter than in the mainland.Most of the GVs,mainly move from the north and west boundaries of the analyzed area,move eastwards to the west Pacific with a mean speed 215 km per season that is faster than the moving speed of GVs in mainland.Most of the GVs are accompanied by a positive abnormally rainfall area in the same seasons and in most cases,the distance between the center of GV and center of rainy area are no more than 100 km.However,when strong earthquakes (M s ≥6.0) occurred in Taiwan,this area may suffer from drought,so,the predict results must be corrected during such conditions.

关 键 词：地热涡 季度 降水预测 台湾海峡两岸 地震 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P434.5