中国海洋科技发展水平动态变迁测度研究  

Dynamic Changes in the Development of China's Marine Science and Technology

作　　者：殷克东[1,2] 卫梦星[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学经济学院,山东青岛266071 [2]华中科技大学,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《中国软科学》2009年第8期144-154,共11页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家社科基金资助项目(08BJY006);国家海洋公益项目(200805081;200705030);中国海洋发展研究中心资助课题(AOC-ZD20070107)

摘　　要：文章利用解释结构模型构建了我国海洋科技实力的综合评价指标体系;通过熵值法、灰色关联分析、PCA、AHP等方法分别构建了测度模型,采用Kendall和模糊聚类法对2002-2006年我国沿海地区海洋科技实力的测度结果进行了分析;并针对典型区域海洋科技发展水平变迁的动因进行了雷达预警分析,探明了中国海洋科技发展变迁的关键因素及其内在关联效应。This article constructs evaluation system of comprehensive strength of marine science and technology using ISM method. Based on the evaluation system, it also estimates the comprehensive strength of regional marine S＆T through application of entropy method, grey correlation analysis, principal component analysis, and AHP method. Kendall consistency test shows the consistency of results gained by various methods, and cluster analysis suggests all provinces to be divided into four groups. This article also chooses typical province for further analysis, reveals the key factor as well as the intrinsic connection effect affecting the dynamic changes of the development of regional marine S＆T, demonstrates the law buried in its changing process scientifically at the same time.

关 键 词：海洋科技综合实力 熵值法 灰色关联 模糊聚类 Kendall一致性检验 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]