兰州市大气环境质量影响因素多元统计模型研究  

Study on multi-variate statistical analysis model of influencing factors on the atmospheric environmental quality in Lanzhou City

作　　者：于涛[1,2] 王可丽[1] 李芳[1] 董志龙 何慧根[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中科院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049 [3]甘肃省环境科学设计研究院甘肃兰州730030

出　　处：《西安建筑科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2009年第5期723-729,共7页Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology(Natural Science Edition)

摘　　要：有别于其他文献从单方面讨论城市大气环境的成因和影响因素,在统计分析软件SPSS12.0的技术支持下,选择兰州市作为代表,对经济发展、能源消耗等与城市大气环境质量相关的诸多影响因子进行了综合数理统计分析并建立模型.结果表明:影响兰州市大气环境质量的因素可归纳为两类,第一类主要包含社会经济发展、能源消耗以及空气污染因素;第二类主要包括气象因素.兰州市大气环境质量主要受机动车数量、国内生产总值GDP、GDP增长率、工业总产值和万元工业废气量等因素影响;并给出了概率水平为0.05的情况下的兰州市空气污染综合指数的回归方程.Different from other literatures in discussing the origin and the influencing factors in single aspect, the mathematical statistics method was adopted to analyze many factors which influence the atmosphere environment in Lanzhou City in this paper, with the technical support of statistical analysis software SPSS12.0. The results showed that the influencing factors on the atmospheric environmental quality in Lanzhou City could be reduced to two kinds of principal component. The first kind contains the economic growth, energy consumption and air pollution factors mainly. And the second includes meteorological factors mainly. Atmospheric environment quality in Lanzhou was mostly influenced by the number of vehicles on the roads the GDP growth rate, the total value of the industrial output and exhausted air quantity per ten thousand Yuan total value of industrial output. The regression equation of Lanzhou air pollution composite indices was determined at 0.05 probability level.

关 键 词：兰州市 大气环境 影响因素 统计分析 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]