基于模糊综合评判的滑坡预报模型及其应用  

Landslide Prediction Model and Its Application Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

作　　者：陆俊[1] 胡少伟[1] 叶少有[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院,南京210029 [2]合肥工业大学,合肥230009

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2009年第5期241-244,共4页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

摘　　要：滑坡预报研究是滑坡研究的核心问题,滑坡预报的核心是预报方法和预报判据。选择合适的预报方法建立预报模型后,必须有较为正确的预报判据,进而能较为准确的预报出滑坡的可能性。结合安徽省淠史杭灌区刘圩大桥段滑坡实例,建立了一个综合型滑坡预报模型,并确定了安全稳定系数、可靠度系数和表面现状系数为该模型的三个预报判据。利用贴近度原则和专家打分法确定各判据的评价指标值,最后通过模糊综合评判得出预报结果,并与稳定程度指标集进行比较,确定预报结论。预报结果与实际吻合得较好,证明该模型是可靠的。The study of landslide prediction is the key problem in the study of landslide and prediction methods and prediction criterions are the key problems of landslide prediction. After choosing an adequate prediction method, we must have chosen the prediction criterions exactly. Then we can predict the possibility of landslide more correctly. This article takes Liuwei bridge landslide for example and an integrated land- slide prediction model is established. Then the prediction criterions include the safe stability coefficient, the credibility coefficient and the surface present condition coefficients are determined in the article. Their evaluation indexes are determined by the principle of which degree comes close and judged by experts. Finally the prediction results are came up through the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and compared with the indexes of the degree of stability. Then it can make the prediction conclusion. The result shows that the model is convenient to use in practice very well. So it is proved that this prediction model is reliable.

关 键 词：滑坡预报 模糊综合评判 预报判据 滑坡实例 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]