供给替代与非均衡相关:生猪及猪肉产量安全检验  

Supply Alternative and Non-equilibrium Correlation:Safety Inspection of Live Pigs and Pork Production

作　　者：邵祥东[1] 张广胜[1] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳农业大学经济管理学院,沈阳110161

出　　处：《商业研究》2009年第10期168-171,共4页Commercial Research

摘　　要：根据协整和偏相关分析理论,利用1992-2006年的统计数据对生猪、猪肉生产及相关农产品对其替代性影响进行实证检验。研究结果表明:生猪及猪肉供给安全,相关农产品替代程度微弱,生猪行业内变量相互不构成格兰杰因果关系。此项研究的政策意义在于:建立生猪生产预警机制对稳定生猪及猪肉市场价值重大。According to the Co -integration and partial correlation analysis theory, using 1992 -2006 annual statistical data, the paper carries out empirical test on live pigs, pork production and related alternative agricultural product. The result shows that the supply of live pigs and pork is safe, related alternative agricultural product is weak, and pig industry variables with each other cannot constitute Granger causality. The policy significance of this study is ： to establish an early warning mechanism for the production of live pigs has great value on stability of live pigs and pork.

关 键 词：供给 猪肉 安全 均衡 

分 类 号：F302.3[经济管理—产业经济]