2010年上海世博会参观者时空分布模拟分析  

Simulation Analysis of Spatiotemporal Distribution of Visitors in Shanghai World Expo 2010

作　　者：王德[1] 马力[2] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学建筑与城市规划学院 [2]同济大学建筑与城市规划学院城市规划系

出　　处：《城市规划学刊》2009年第5期64-70,共7页Urban Planning Forum

基　　金：上海市科委重点课题“2010年世博会规划建设全过程的控制管理”部分成果(编号:05DZ05830);上海世博会事务协调局重点课题“中国2010年上海世博会园区规划建设三维仿真可视化控制管理系统”部分成果(编号:05-SP-05);国家自然科学基金项目“我国商业步行街消费者行为研究-Logit模型的应用”部分成果(项目批准号:40871080)

摘　　要：2010年上海世博会参观人次众多,需要在规划设计阶段就考虑展时参观者的分布与流动情况。通过网上虚拟参观调查,获取参观者的行为数据,使用Conditional Logit模型描述人在世博会参观过程中连续的目的地选择行为——参观行为,进行多个体参观行为的时空模拟,预测分析了世博会参观人次、人流、就餐需求、休息需求及单个展馆参观的时空变化情况,为世博会展区规划管理和相关设施布局提供参考。The plan of the Expo 2010 in Shanghai should pay more attention to the distribution and flows of visitors based on the layout of the EXPO site. In this paper, data on virtual visits to the site were collected by using a web-based experiment. A Conditional Logit Model is applied to predict destination choice behavior of visitors. Model estimation results were very satisfactory with all factors significant in the hypothesized directions. The model is taken as the main structure of the simulation framework with additional behavior modules such as resting, queuing, and dining. We simulated the visits of 4,000 individual visitors and predicted the spatiotemporal distribution of visits, visitor flows, dining demands and rest place demands at the Expo site. Suggestions for site planning and service provision were given, based on these predictions.

关 键 词：世博会 时空模拟 条件选择模型 参观者 

分 类 号：F713.83[经济管理—广告]