伴远处转移胰腺癌患者化疗风险预测模型研究  

Predictive model of systemic chemotherapy risks in pancreatic cancer patients with distant metastasis

作　　者：常东民[1] 马刚[1] 张勇[1] 王作仁[2] 姬生威[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学第一附属医院肿瘤外科,陕西西安710061 [2]西安交通大学第一附属医院肝胆外科,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《第四军医大学学报》2009年第18期1805-1807,共3页Journal of the Fourth Military Medical University

基　　金：陕西省科技攻关项目(2008K09-03)

摘　　要：目的:对伴远处转移胰腺癌患者化疗风险预测模型进行研究.方法:回顾性分析87例出现远处转移的胰腺癌患者应用5-Fu,顺铂、吉西他滨等化疗后的预后.结果:全组中位生存时间为3.8 mo;3,6,12 mo的生存率分别为58%,26%和3%.Cox累计风险比例模型分析提示:腹水、血清胆碱酯酶水平(ChE)<110 U/L和年龄≥65岁都是独立的不良预后因素.结论:伴远处转移胰腺癌患者化疗风险预测模型:相对死亡风险(RRD)=exp(腹水×1.213+ChE×1.065+年龄×0.651).AIM： To establish the predictive model of systemic chemotherapy risks in pancreatic cancer patients with distant metastasis. METHODS： Eighty-seven pancreatic cancer patients with distant metastasis treated with systemic chemotherapy using 5-fluorouracil, cisplatin or gemcitabine were analyzed retrospectively to investigate the prognostic factors. RESULTS： The overall median survival time of all the patients under study was 3.8 months, and the survival rates of 3, 6 and 12 months were 58%, 26% and 3% respectively. Cox proportional hazards model showed that independent poor prognostic factors were the presence of ascites, serum ChE level 〈 110 U/L, and age ≥ 65. CONCLUSION： The predictive model of systemic chemotherapy risks in pancreatic cancer patients with distant metastasis is： the relative risk of death （RRD） = exp（ presence of ascites × 1. 213 ＋ serum ChE level × 1. 065 ＋ age≥ 65 × 0.651 ）.

关 键 词：胰腺肿瘤 化疗风险 预测 模型 统计学 

分 类 号：R735.9[医药卫生—肿瘤]