基于宏观贸易调整方法的国家生态足迹模型  

National ecological footprint model based on macroscopical trade-correct method

作　　者：白钰[1,2] 曾辉[1,3] 李贵才[1] 高启辉[3] 魏建兵[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学深圳研究生院,城市人居环境科学与技术重点实验室,深圳518055 [2]天津市国土资源和房屋管理研究中心,天津300041 [3]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871

出　　处：《生态学报》2009年第9期4827-4835,共9页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40830747);深圳市"百人计划";深圳市科技局科技计划资助项目(SZKJ-200706)

摘　　要：针对生态足迹分析模型传统贸易调整方法中仅仅考虑生物产品和能源直接贸易而没有涵盖各类产品间接贸易所产生的贸易足迹的缺陷,分别提出了包含两类贸易足迹核算在内的生物产品贸易调整系数和能源贸易调整系数,并在此基础上构建了基于宏观贸易调整方法的国家生态足迹分析模型。将该模型用于中国1986～2005年的实证研究表明,模型结果虽然没有对中国生态超载形势逐渐恶化的结论形成颠覆性影响,但却揭示了人均生态足迹具有间隔为5a左右的周期性下降现象。生物产品的贸易足迹变化趋势与我国目前面临的农业乃至粮食生产形式较为一致;能源贸易足迹变化趋势则真实地反映了我国现行经济发展模式、产业结构乃至国际贸易发展的特点。实证研究成果还充分证明,加工产品的贸易对国家生态足迹的影响不容忽略,特别是能源贸易足迹的合理估算,可以作为国家层面全球环境责任分工的依据之一。Ecological footprint （EF） is one of the most successfully and widely used method of sustainable development assessment. However, due to its inherent weakness, many scholars modified ecological footprint model according to its shortcomings. This paper pointed that trade-correct method is based on the biologic and energy accounts categories data, without considering the trade of artifactitious products. By analyzing the actual range of trade, we tried constructing two ＂trade-correct coefficients＂ to advance a national EF model based on macroscopical trade-correct method. In ＂trade-correct coefficient＂ of biologic account, the product of household consumption expenditure and Engle Coefficient represented national consumption of biologic products, while the sum of primary industry GDP and food productions GDP represented national biologic products output. In energy account, we used the energy consumption density of three industries to compute energy content in trade, then the ‘trade-correct coefficient＇ was given to evaluate energy consumption which was serve to national people. This EF model is applied to the ecological assessment of China between 1986 and 2005. The results indicate the following： （1） Chinese EF is 0. 9802 hm^2 cap^-1 in 1986 and 1. 8769 hm^2 cap^-1 in 2005. The result showed that the ecological overloading of China worsening as a whole, but it opened out a phenomenon that the periodical decrease of EF per capita. （2） The biologic products trade footprint decreased from 0. 0285 hm^2 cap^-1 in 1986 to -0. 0154 hm^2 cap^-1 in 2005, but the change trend was fluctuant. The highest value was 0. 0314 hm^2 cap^-1 in 1990 and the lowest one was -0. 1505 hm^2 cap^-1 in 1999. These results coincided with the agriculture and grains productions. The energy trade footprint was steadier than the former, and the trend reflected the economic development pattern, industry structure and the international trade development features. （3） The artifactitious product trade had an unneglectab

关 键 词：生态足迹 贸易调整 贸易足迹 尺度 中国 

分 类 号：X2[环境科学与工程—环境科学]