基于原子激发能级的铁路客流短期预测的研究  

Short-term Forecast of Railway Passenger Flow based on Atomic-model Excited Level

作　　者：马彦祥[1] 刘军[2] 马敏书[2] 高嵩[2] 

机构地区：[1]中铁第四勘察设计院集团有限公司站线处,湖北武汉430063 [2]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044

出　　处：《铁道运输与经济》2009年第9期72-75,78,共5页Railway Transport and Economy

摘　　要：借鉴波尔原子模型,提出和建立了涵盖特殊时段客流量与平日客流量的客流激发能级模型,将客流短期预测问题转化为激发态客流增量的确定和基态趋势客流预测两个问题。针对激发态客流增量确定的问题,提出了对影响因素进行能级评定的模糊综合评价方法,并通过实例加以说明。By referring the Boer＇s atomic model, the passenger flow excited level models in special period and weekdays are suggested and established. The shortterm passenger flow forecasting is transferred into two problems, which are increment conforming in excited states and time series forecasting in ground states. In the problem of the increment conforming in excited states, this paper puts forward fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the excited level of influential factors, and introduces it by examples.

关 键 词：铁路 客流 短期预测 客流激发能级 

分 类 号：U293.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]