资本账户开放和人民币汇率制度选择——基于升值压力下的中国特色IS-LM-BP模型分析  

The Freedom of Capital Account and the Choice of RMB Exchange Regime——Analysis from China's IS-LM-BP Model under the Appreciative Pressure

作　　者：雷强[1] 苏立峰[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海200052 [2]上海立信会计学院金融学院,上海201620

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2009年第10期72-75,共4页East China Economic Management

摘　　要：基于中国特色的IS-LM-BP模型分析人民币升值压力下的资本账户开放和汇率制度的选择所得出的结论都将与经典理论有很大差别。最终结论指出如果汇率制度先变革,财政货币政策应该反方向运作,或保持货币政策独立性,短期产量下降,由于资本账户的开放程度不同,长期产量增减不确定,完全浮动汇率制度不适用于中国。如果先开放资本项目,为保持内外均衡,必须保持汇率稳定,需要同方向实行扩张性的财政货币政策,短期和长期产量都大幅度增加。This paper studies the capital account opening and exchange regime choice based on China＇s IS-LM-BP Model on RMB appreciative pressure. Unlike that of the classic theory, the results show if the latter is operated first, the short - term yield declines applying the fiscal and monetary policies reversely or maintaining monetary policy changeless. The long - term yield changes are unknown and RMB ＇ s free floating is not applicable to China for the capital account opening degree. If the former is operated first, keeping the internal and external balance, it maintains the exchange rate stable and expanse both policies, the short and longterm yields increase.

关 键 词：中国特色的IS—LM—BP模型 资本账户开放 汇率制度 货币财政政策 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理]