SRM模型在玛纳斯河流域春季洪水预警中的应用研究  

Application of SRM to Flood Forecast and Forwarning of Manasi River Basin in Spring

作　　者：张璞[1,2] 王建[1] 刘艳[2] 李杨[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《遥感技术与应用》2009年第4期456-461,共6页Remote Sensing Technology and Application

基　　金：中国气象局气象新技术推广项目(CMATG2006M19);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目(IDM200704);863项目(2008AA12Z201);973项目(2006CB701305)共同资助

摘　　要：在玛纳斯河流域应用SRM模型进行日径流量的预报,进一步完成对该流域春季融雪性洪水的监测和预警,为防洪、抗旱、提高水资源利用提供技术支撑。引入中国气象局T213数值产品来进行流域分带温度和降水的预报,为融雪径流预报开辟了新的数据方法。通过利用自主开发的融雪径流模拟预报软件1.0版对玛纳斯河流域肯斯瓦特水文站2004年春季融雪期进行径流量预报,从SRM模型的两个精度评价指标看来,预报结果比较满意。SRM is used for daily runoff forecast of Manasi river basin. Snow-melting flood of the basin in spring is monitored and warned technically for the purpose of flood control, drought resistance, and water resources untilisation. Innovatively, using CMA T213 metereological data to forecast zonal temperature and precipication of the basin is regarded as a data eploratory analysis of snow-melting runoff. With our self-developed version 1.0 software of snow-melting runoff simulation and forecast, pariticuarly we make a forecast of snow-mehing runoff in the Kensiwate hydrological station of Manasi river basin in spring, 2004. Two precision indexes of the forecast model SRM has shown the reliability of the forecast results.

关 键 词：SRM模型 融雪径流 玛纳斯河 T213 

分 类 号：TP79[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]