灰色预测在农林牧渔业发展中的应用  

The Application of Grey Forecast in the Agriculture,Forestry,Animal Husbandry and Fishery′s Development

作　　者：郭金海[1] 张三霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]长江大学信息与数学学院,湖北荆州434023

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2009年第20期79-85,共7页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

摘　　要：运用GM(1,1)模型对我国农林牧渔业总产值进行预测,首先对数据进行预处理,使其满足灰色预测模型的条件,运用M ATLAB软件编程求解.通过做残差检验和滚动检验,发现误差均小于10%,最后进行了关联度分析.得出结论:对农林牧渔业总产值影响最大的为渔业,其次为牧业,林业和农业.Using the GM （1,1） model on China＇s agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery output value forecast. Firstly, pretreated the data to meet the Grey forecasting model＇s conditions and used the MATLAB software to solve the programming. Secondly, made the Residual testing and rolling test and found the Residual was less than ten percent. Finally, carried on the Grey Relational. come to a conclusion： Affects what to the total output value is biggest is the fishing industry, next is the animal husbandry, the forestry and the agriculture.

关 键 词：GM(1 1) 灰色预测 灰关联度分析 残差检验 滚动检验 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F320