基于上市公司现金流的财务风险预警  

The Financial Precaution for Listed Companies Based on Cash Flow

作　　者：李荣[1] 李永芳[2] 

机构地区：[1]江苏技术师范学院经济管理学院,江苏常州213001 [2]江苏技术师范学院图书馆,江苏常州213001

出　　处：《商业研究》2009年第11期146-149,共4页Commercial Research

基　　金：江苏省教育厅社科基金项目;项目编号:06JD630017;江苏技术师范学院基础和应用研究基金项目的阶段性成果

摘　　要：企业之间竞争日益激烈,因财务风险导致企业经营陷入困境甚至破产清算的现象不断增加。加强对企业营运过程中的风险控制,特别是建立在现金流基础上的风险预警机制是预防企业陷入财务困境的有效措施。从财务风险的预警机理出发,以江苏省上市公司为研究对象,从盈利能力、获现能力、偿债能力和可持续发展能力方面选取反映企业现金流和财务质量的核心财务指标,并运用SPSS软件,采用主成分分析法,通过对江苏省上市公司财务风险状况的实证研究,建立上市公司财务预警模型——z值模型,为企业提供一个较为科学的预测自身财务风险的工具。At present, the competition among enterprises is becoming more serious than before, and more and more companies are in trouble for financial risk. Therefore, the most useful way to prevent a company from falling into financial troubles is to strengthen the risk - control of the whole process of the company＇s running. Especially establish the risk early warning on cash flow. This thesis will chose 16 key financial indexes that reflect enterprises＇ cash flow and financial quality based on the prior - warning feature of financial risk, aimed at the listed companies in Jiangsu Province, and from four abilities of getting a profit, gaining cash, paying debts, and continual developing. Among these targets, it uses SPSS software and adopts the principal component analysis to build the financial early warning model for listed companies - the mark model, which offers enterprises a tool that can forecast the financial risk more scientifically.

关 键 词：上市公司 现金流 主成分分析 财务预警 

分 类 号：F276.6[经济管理—企业管理]