北京市平谷平原地下水水位动态统计预测模型  

Model on Groundwater Level Dynamic Statistical in Pinggu Plain of Beijing

作　　者：徐强[1] 束龙仓[1] 杨丹[2] 刘晋[2] 杨桂莲[2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]水利部地下水监测中心,北京100053

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2009年第5期58-61,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项基金资助项目(200801020)

摘　　要：通过分析北京平谷平原水文地质条件、地下水水位动态特征和水位动态的影响因素,分别采用多元线性回归模型、季节分解模型对山前平原和中部平原建模分析,并预测了平谷地下水水位动态。结果表明,在现有条件下山前平原的水位变化不明显,中部平原水位下降较多。Pinggu is divided into piedmont plain and median plain according to its hydro-geological condition, groundwater dynamic characteristic and effect factors. There is a good relationship between the piedmont plain current month groundwater level and current month precipitation and exploitation quantity, so the multi-linear model can be used. But this relationship is not strong in median plain, and the R2 is less than 0.8. So the groundwater level prediction of median plain cannot use multi-linear model. However, the seasonal decomposition model can solve this problem because the groundwater level shows trend and seasonal effect. The result of predicting groundwater level from January to December in 2008 shows that the piedmont plain groundwater level changes little but the median plain groundwater level decreases a lot.

关 键 词：平谷 地下水水位预测 影响因素 多元线性回归模型 季节分解模型 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P641.2[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]