新疆绿洲生态承载力分析  

Analysis of Xinjiang Oasis' Ecological Carrying Capacity

作　　者：刘永萍[1] 户涛[1] 支小军 

机构地区：[1]石河子大学经贸学院,新疆石河子832000

出　　处：《生态经济》2009年第11期43-46,124,共5页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家软科学项目"新疆绿洲产业结构变迁与生态综合承载力系统的协调性问题研究"(S2009GX0122)阶段性成果;石河子大学社会科学重点项目"基于绿洲生态综合承载力新疆产业结构优化研究"的阶段性成果(RWSK08-Z03)

摘　　要：生态环境是人类生存的载体,在保护生物多样性条件下其承载能力是有限的。文章建立模型,对新疆绿洲2001～2007年生态承载力进行实证分析,结果证明新疆绿洲生态承载力高于实际人口数量,绝对差呈缩小趋势。同时,对新疆绿洲生态承载力预测,2008～2015年模拟仿真结果表明其在未来一段时间内将小幅度上升。Ecological environment is the carrier of human existence, under the conditions of the conservation of biological diversity which carrying capacity is limited. From model, we carry on the real diagnosis analysis to the Xinjiang oasis＇ ecology carrying capacity in 2001-2007 year, which results show that the Xinjiang oasis＇ ecological carrying capacity is higher than the actual population, and the trend of absolute gap was narrow. Meanwhile we forecast the Xinjiang oasis ecology carrying capacity in 2008-2015 year, which results show that the ecological carrying capacity increased slightly in the next period of time.

关 键 词：系统动力学 生态足迹 生态承载力 

分 类 号：F327.45[经济管理—产业经济] X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]