Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow in the Xitiaoxi Catchment, Taihu Basin  

作　　者：LIU Liu XU Zongxue HUANG Junxiong 

机构地区：[1]College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University/Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences, Ministry ofEducation, Beijing 100875, China [2]Beijing Hydraulic Research Institute, Beijing 100048,China

出　　处：《Wuhan University Journal of Natural Sciences》2009年第6期525-531,共7页武汉大学学报（自然科学英文版）

基　　金：Supported by China/UK Scientific Cooperation Project from the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2006DFA71390);Open Research Foundation of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydro-power Research

摘　　要：The impact of climate change on streamflow in the Xitiaoxi catchment is assessed by using VIC （variable infiltration capacity） model coupled with PRECIS （providing regional climate for impacts studies）. Results show that the VIC model is adaptable for the study area. Both deterministic coefficient and NashSuttcliffe efficiency coefficient are greater than 0.75, with a good agreement between observed and simulated discharge. The runoff will increase in the future, especially during flood seasons. The magnitude of floods in the future （2021-2050） under A2 and B2 scenarios will be greater than that during the baseline period （1961-1990）, but it may not exceed that during the 1990s.The impact of climate change on streamflow in the Xitiaoxi catchment is assessed by using VIC （variable infiltration capacity） model coupled with PRECIS （providing regional climate for impacts studies）. Results show that the VIC model is adaptable for the study area. Both deterministic coefficient and NashSuttcliffe efficiency coefficient are greater than 0.75, with a good agreement between observed and simulated discharge. The runoff will increase in the future, especially during flood seasons. The magnitude of floods in the future （2021-2050） under A2 and B2 scenarios will be greater than that during the baseline period （1961-1990）, but it may not exceed that during the 1990s.

关 键 词：VIC （variable infiltration capacity） Model climate change PRECIS （providing regional climate for impacts studies） streamflow Xitiaoxi catchment 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X143[环境科学与工程—环境科学]