气候演变与自然灾害  

Climatic evolution and natural calamities

作　　者：张士三[1] 陈谋智[2] 陈玉霞[3] 陈承惠[3] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋局厦门海洋管区,厦门361005 [2]厦门大学物理系,厦门361005 [3]国家海洋局第三海洋研究所,厦门361005

出　　处：《台湾海峡》1998年第4期408-416,共9页Journal of Oceanography In Taiwan Strait

摘　　要：气候变化是引发自然灾害的重要因素之一。在漫长的地史过程中，气候周期性的变化使自然灾害的多发期呈现出一定的周期性。本文研究了不同时间尺度的气候冷热变化周期与自然灾害多发期的关系，发现气候由热变冷时期与自然灾害多发期具有很好的对应关系。从气候周期的定位结果来看，现在和21世纪是处在20、4和0．4ka气候周期中的冷时段，由此推断本世纪末和21世纪可能是自然灾害的多发期。Climatic change is one of the important factors causing natural calamities. In the longprocess of geological history, perlodic climatic change makes the frequently-occurring stageto show a certain perlodicity. After the analysis of corresponding relation between the climatic cold-warm cycles in various time scales and the frequently-occurring stages of naturalcalamities, it is found that there is a corresponding relation between the stage of climatechange from hot to cold and the frequently-occurring stage of natural calamities. Accordingto the posit1oning result of cllmatic cycles, the present and 21 century is located the coldtime-section in the cllmatic cycles of 20 000a, 4 000a and 400a, and it is inferred that the endof 20 century and the 21 century may be a frequently-occurring stage of natural calamities.

关 键 词：气候周期 自然灾害 多发期 气候变化 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]