灰色系统GM(1,1)模型在天津地下热水水位预测中的应用  

Application of GM(1,1)Model of Grey System in Predication of Geothermal Water Level in TIANJIN

作　　者：田光辉[1] 曾梅香[1] 程万庆[1] 赵苏民[1] 李俊[1] 贾志[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津地热勘查开发设计院,天津300250

出　　处：《地下水》2009年第6期8-9,28,共3页Ground water

基　　金：矿产资源补偿费地热项目(国土房地热任字[2008]002)资助

摘　　要：天津是我国开发利用地热资源较早的城市之一,二十世纪九十年代开始大规模的将地热资源应用于供暖、洗浴、养殖等方面。但随着地热资源开采规模的不断扩大,地下热水的水位正在逐年下降。通过整理和分析以往的动态监测资料,介绍了天津地区地热地质条件,总结了天津地区地下热水水位动态变化的基本特征,并利用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型对地下热水的未来水位变化趋势进行了预测,提出GM(1,1)模型在地下热水水位短期预测中的优势和应用前景。It is one of the older cities that the geothermal resources is exploited and utilized in our country. Sinee1990s, the geothermal resources is applied in the heating, bathing, breeding and other aspects. But with the geothermal resources exploitation scale extending continuously, the geothermal water level is decreasing year after year. The paper is based on arrangement and analysis of the former dynamic observation data, introduces the geothermal geological condition, summarizes the basic dynamic variation characteristics of geothermal water, predicts of the water level variation trend by using GM（1,1） model of grey system, puts forward the superiority and application prospect of GM（1,1）model in short--term prediction of geothermal water level.

关 键 词：地热资源 水位 灰色系统 GM(1 1)模型 动态预测 

分 类 号：P314.1[天文地球—固体地球物理学]